Big Six Banks Split on Bank of Canada Rate Outlook Through 2027

Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada rate outlook, interest rates, mortgage rates, mortgage rate outlook, Big Six banks, Canadian banks, fixed mortgage rates, variable mortgage rates, mortgage renewal, 2027 rate forecast, Ontario mortgages
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BMO and TD Expect Rates to Stay Put

BMO Economics expects the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate at 2.25% through the end of 2027. TD currently shares the same outlook.

Other Big Banks Expect Rate Increases

The outlook is far from unanimous. RBC, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank expect rate increases at different points between late 2026 and 2027. RBC has the highest forecast, reaching 3.25% by late 2027.

Why BMO Remains Cautious

Despite stronger-than-expected economic growth, BMO points to subdued underlying inflation and continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy as reasons for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold.

My Recommendation

There is no clear consensus on where rates are heading. Variable-rate borrowers and homeowners approaching renewal should not automatically assume rates will fall further. With forecasts diverging considerably, mortgage decisions should be based on personal circumstances, cash flow and risk tolerance—not a single interest-rate prediction.

Source: CMT Newsdesk