Variable | Fixed | Hybrid Options
Compiled by Maurice Kwok, MBA, CPA, MA
In this Ontario mortgage rate update for October 2025, we’ll look at how both variable and fixed mortgage rates in Ontario are shifting as the Bank of Canada holds steady on its policy rate. Whether you’re exploring refinance mortgage options in Ontario or searching for the best mortgage rates in Ontario, understanding current trends will help you make confident decisions for your next renewal or purchase. Let’s review what’s driving today’s rates — and how you can secure your most competitive fit.
📈 Interest Rate Outlook
Bank of Canada: Possible Second Cut This Week
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate to 2.50% on Sept 17. With the next decision on Oct 29, many economists now expect another -0.25% cut, as reported by Financial Post—even as September data showed inflation ~2.4%, core above 3%, and a +60k jobs gain with unemployment ~7.1%. A hold is still possible, but the bias has shifted toward easing.
What this could mean for you
- Variable/HELOC: If the Bank cuts, lenders typically lower prime by 0.25%, which can reduce payments or interest cost.
- Fixed rates: These move with the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield; recent stability suggests flat to slightly lower fixed rates near term.
- Timing: Markets will react quickly after the announcement; we’ll update rate sheets promptly.
💬 Mortgage Advice From Maurice
1️⃣ Review Your Renewal Early
If your mortgage is renewing within six months, don’t wait for your lender’s offer.
Variable and short-term fixed rates are gaining momentum again as the Bank of Canada signals further cuts.
Locking in the right structure early can help you benefit from lower borrowing costs ahead.
2️⃣ Refinance Strategically
Many Ontario homeowners are using today’s declining variable-rate environment to access equity for renovations, debt consolidation, or investments.
If your current rate is higher, a refinance into a flexible term may improve your monthly cash flow while positioning you to capture additional savings as rates move lower.
3️⃣ For the Self-Employed
If taxable income doesn’t reflect your true earnings, alternative and stated-income mortgage programs can help you qualify with the right lender.
Several of these programs also support variable or hybrid terms, offering flexibility for business owners, professionals, and contractors with fluctuating income.
4️⃣ Variable vs. Fixed — Why Flexibility Matters
A variable rate remains the most adaptable choice as the Bank of Canada leans toward further easing into 2026.
For borrowers seeking short-term stability, a 2–3 year fixed term can also capture future rate drops at renewal.
Both options can work well — the key is matching your comfort level and financial goals to the right term.
5️⃣ Get Personalized Advice
Every borrower’s goals and timelines are unique.
I compare multiple lenders — banks, trust companies, and private sources — to find a rate and structure that fit your full financial picture.
👉 Contact me or Start an application to explore the best variable or hybrid mortgage strategy for your situation.
📊 Economic Signals
- Bank of Canada Policy Rate: 2.50% (unchanged since September 17)
- Prime Rate: 4.70%
- Inflation (September): 2.4%, up from 1.9% in August
- Unemployment: 7.1%
- 5-Year GoC Bond Yield: 2.58%
Sticky inflation and a strong jobs report (+60,400 new jobs in September) prompted the Bank to pause further easing.
📅 Rate Forecasts
- Next Ban of Canada Announcement: October 29, 2025
- Market Odds of Cut: ≈ 69% (down from 77% after CPI release)
- Big Six Forecasts:
- BMO, CIBC, Scotiabank → 2.25% by year-end
- RBC → Hold at 2.50%
- BofA → Cut in December more likely than October
💰 Featured Mortgage Rates (as of October 23, 2025)
5-Year Variable (Insured): Prime – 0.70%
5-Year Variable (Conventional): Prime – 0.45%
5-Year Fixed: 4.09% (insured, trust)
4-Year Fixed: 4.24% (insured, bank)
3-Year Fixed: 3.94% (insured, bank)
2-Year Fixed: 4.94% (trust)
1-Year Fixed: 4.99% (trust)
Prime Rate: 4.70% (since September 28)
Rental: Subject to rental premium
💬 Rates vary by lender, credit score, and property type. Contact me for today’s best lender match and a full comparison chart.
📱 Download My Mortgage Planner — Free App
Plan your next purchase, renewal, or refinance anytime with my free mobile app.
👉 Download here
🏦 Alternate Lender Rates (for self-employed / higher TDS ratio)
- 1-Year: 4.99% (credit score 680+)
- 2-Year: 5.09% (credit score 680+)
- 3-Year: 4.99% (credit score 680+)
💡 Ready To Explore Your Options?
If you’re refinancing or self-employed, getting approved can often feel more stressful than it should be. I understand how frustrating it is when banks ask for endless paperwork or overlook your real financial strength.
That’s why my focus isn’t just on rates — it’s on smart approval strategies that match your income, credit, and goals. As your trusted mortgage guide, I’ll simplify the process, compare your refinance and self-employed mortgage options across Ontario, and help you move forward with clarity and confidence.
💬 Let’s start your approval plan today — with less stress, fewer surprises, and a mortgage that truly fits.
Click below or contact me directly to discuss your mortgage options today.
📞 Maurice Kwok, MBA, CPA, MA
Mortgage Broker, FSRA Lic.# M13000496 (Ontario)
Sherwood Mortgage Group, Broker Lic.# 12176
🌐 MortgageMaurice.ca | 📱 (416) 618-9312
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