On July 22, 2026, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook, forecasting continued challenges for Ontario’s housing market through the remainder of 2026, followed by a gradual recovery over the next two years.
• Ontario Outlook: Housing construction and home sales are expected to remain below their 10-year averages. Ontario is also the only province forecast to experience home price declines in 2026, reflecting affordability challenges, slower population growth, and ongoing economic uncertainty.
• GTA Home Sales: MLS® home sales are projected to reach 63,000–63,500 in 2026, increasing to 69,500–71,500 in 2027 and 75,200–77,000 in 2028.
• GTA Home Prices: The MLS® average home price is forecast to ease to approximately $1.02 million in 2026 before recovering to $1.05 million in 2027 and $1.10 million in 2028.
• GTA Housing Starts: Total housing starts are expected to range between 26,000 and 26,400 in 2026, rising gradually to 29,400–31,200 by 2028.
CMHC expects improving economic conditions, lower borrowing costs, and stronger buyer confidence to support a gradual housing market recovery beginning in 2027. Whether you’re buying, renewing, refinancing, or investing, staying informed about market trends can help you make smarter mortgage decisions.
Source: CMHC, Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook (July 22, 2026)
Maurice Kwok ・ 郭澤文 ・ 粵語 ・ 國語
Mortgage Broker, CPA, MBA
FSRA-licensed Mortgage Broker (Licence #M13000496)
Sherwood Mortgage Group (FSRA Brokerage Lic.#12176)
Guiding Ontario homebuyers and homeowners since 1995.